Picking up from COP28:
The Bonn Climate Change Conference (SB60) aims to monitor progress since the previous Conference of the Parties meeting (COP28) and identify key actions towards a successful conclusion of COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan. The core topics for discussion and agreement across the two weeks were: The Global Stocktake; the Just Transition Work Programme; National Climate Plans (NDCs); Adaptation; Climate Finance; Transparency; Market Mechanisms; and the Loss and Damage Fund.
An opening wake-up call: The risk of overshooting is very real
As the meetings began 60 Scientists from Earth System Science Data revealed that for 2023, which was the warmest year on record, the best estimate of the warming caused by human activity is now 1.31C above pre-industrial levels, pointing towards overshooting the 1.5C within the next ten years. Within this gloomy announcement there is, however, evidence that the rate of increase in CO2 emissions over the past decade has slowed compared to the 2000s.
Not taking stock:
At COP28 a new “UAE Dialogue on implementing the Global Stocktake (GST) Outcome” was established to advance the commitments made in the GST Outcome document over the next four years. The Bonn meetings concluded with clear concerns that the actions of the stocktake aren’t being followed, especially around the key mitigation work programme. Consultations on this essential matter remained inconclusive and will weigh heavily on COP29. Consultations on this essential matter remained inconclusive and will weigh heavily on COP29.
Going further for longer: More ambition needed in National Climate Plans (NDC’s):
Since 2020, countries have been submitting their NDCs. The Paris Agreement considers “ratcheting” up climate ambition reflected in updated — more ambitious — NDCs every five years. A new round of national climate plans — NDCs 3.0 are to be delivered by COP30 in Belem, Brazil (2025). These NDCs require closing the current implementation gap and be aligned with the 1.5C goal. In doing so it needs long term pathways to be built in.
Climate finance (NCQG) ambition grows, but unified path forward remains unclear:
The New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on Climate Finance, intended to aid developing countries and the most vulnerable peoples in addressing the climate crisis, is slated to be delivered by COP29.
India — supported by KSA, the UAE and Egypt suggested that USD 1tn per year ought to be the objective to be pursued. While this target was deemed realistic by many parties both the EU — the biggest supplier of climate finance — and the US sought to increase the number of funding parties. Many unresolved issues also remain around:
- a common definition of climate finance [e.g. the exclusion of market-based loans, public funding vs private capital, innovative funding mechanisms including new global taxes, etc.]
- the period for which the new goal should be set for;
- how funding flows are to be monitored;
- what the resources ought to be spent on;
- should loss-and-damage funding be included.
The important role of public funding outside the UNFCCC COP process — particularly via development banks - was also stressed. Financing will therefore remain at the core of all climate negotiations amid “funding fatigue” among OECD countries, and their insistence to include China and Gulf countries in particular in future funding efforts. To break through this impasse, a “multi-layered” approach likely will need be taken to agree on the new NCQG, including both public finance and private capital.
Challenges remain on Market Mechanisms:
Technical discussions around authorizations and registries continue to slow down progress on market mechanisms (article 6.2 and 6.4 mechanisms). Emissions avoidance and conservation enhancement related activities remain excluded until further notice. Until then the mechanisms will only cover emission reduction and removal activities. Lack of progress means that international carbon markets will remain confined to the highly challenged voluntary carbon markets.
Hosting the Loss and Damage Fund
Discussions on interim-hosting arrangements with the World Bank are ongoing amid concerns over high management fees and control. Ambition on Adaptation stalls: A new process to critically address adaptation goals was adopted at COP28 through the “UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience,” which includes key objectives to be met by 2030 including: assessing risks exposure and vulnerabilities to the effects of climate change; as well as designing and implementing their national adaptation plans and strategies. Progress on National Adaptation Plans is considered as still being woefully insufficient — with only 57 countries having submitted it. The parties were not able to reach agreement on outstanding issues on the Global Goal on Adaptation, either.
Transparency tool in the works:
Under the Paris Agreement, Parties agreed to submit their first Biennial Transparency Reports this year. Simon Stiell — UNFCCC Executive Secretary underlined that “Knowledge gained will help countries make informed choices, set ambitious goals, and unlock the finance needed to support them.” A reporting tool is to be unveiled by 30 June 2024.
Delivering a Just Transition:
The work programme on just transition pathways was established at COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh in 2022. The first dialogue under the United Arab Emirates Just Transition Work Programme was held during the Bonn meeting, providing an opportunity for Parties and observers to share their experiences on just transition pathways to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement through countries’ national climate action plans (Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs), National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and Long-term, low-emission development strategies (LT-LEDS).
Looking towards COP29:
The essential issue that will make or break COP29 remains defining the climate finance levels that need to be agreed upon — with most negotiators now realizing that the needs are no longer in the billions but in the trillions. Where these resources will come from, how they will be deployed and when remains elusive. COP29 will also see renewed calls for mitigation ambition to remain in line with science, i.e. that emissions need to drop by 43% by 2030 — a titanic task. The increasing realization that climate change is happening is felt around the world has. Despite the urgency a clear pathway for either adaptation ambition or supporting those already affected by the real consequences of climate change is still lacking.
Nikolaus Schultze is Chair of Climate at EGA.
